Does Pole Position Actually Win the Race?

In NASCAR, the pole sitter wins about 15% of the time. In F1, it is closer to 40%. In IndyCar, it varies by track. Starting first matters, but it is far from a guarantee.

On superspeedways like Daytona and Talladega, the pole is almost meaningless. Pack racing shuffles the field constantly. On short tracks like Martinsville, the pole sitter has a real edge.

Track position matters more in F1 because passing is harder. Monaco is the extreme: if you qualify on pole, you win most of the time.

None of this matters for your pool. The winning square depends on the last digit of the car number, not whether they started first or last. That is what makes squares fair.